In the natural gas industry, regulatory filings are a critical juncture where utilities must justify their operational and financial decisions to public commissions. Whether it’s a rate case to recover costs or a proceeding to secure infrastructure approvals, the stakes are high—reliability, affordability, and regulatory approval hang in the balance. At Marquette Energy Analytics (MEA), two of our flagship tools: MCast GasDay, a daily natural gas demand forecaster, and Design Day Studies, an analysis of long-term expected gas demand, have been proven to equip utilities with the precision and credibility needed to excel in these proceedings.
Built on decades of academic research and proprietary algorithms, we’re not just a vendor, we’re a partner. This blog explores how our solutions strengthen filings.
Rate Cases
Rate cases are the proving ground for utilities to demonstrate cost management and propose equitable rate structures. MCast GasDay and Design Day Studies play pivotal roles here, offering data-driven insights that regulators trust.
Cost Recovery and Proving Prudence
MCast GasDay’s daily forecasting capabilities shine in justifying gas purchasing decisions, a frequent target of regulatory scrutiny. This forecast, updated daily, guides traders in nominating precise volumes, ensuring supply matches demand without excess costs. In past cases, GasDay’s accuracy has helped utilities secure full recovery of billions in purchased gas costs, as the model’s transparency reassured regulators of prudent practices.
Similarly, in another case, a utility leaned on MCast GasDay during the extraordinary conditions of Winter Storm Uri in 2021. Facing a “weather event forecasted to exceed […] peak design day” MCast GasDay ran twice daily, allowing the utility to compare forecasts to nominations and guide spot purchase decisions as storage maxed out. The result? Service continuity for 99.9% of customers, with extraordinary costs of approximately $250 million approved by the Commission. This success story underscores how our tools turn crises into opportunities.
Rate Design and Forecasting
Accurate demand forecasts are the backbone of defensible rate designs, and MCast GasDay delivers. In one case, a utility relied on MEA’s medium range gas forecasting tool, which is now MCast Planner. They submitted an annual forecast, built on historical usage and weather data, which allowed the utility to propose rates reflecting true operational needs for the May 2022–April 2023 period. The commission’s acceptance of this forecast underscores how MCast’s precision fosters trust, ensuring rates balance customer affordability with utility sustainability.
Beyond daily operations, MCast GasDay’s long-term forecasting supports rate stability. By modeling demand across seasons, utilities can avoid over- or under-recovery, a common regulatory sticking point. Our proprietary algorithms, refined over decades, outperform generic models, giving utilities a competitive edge in rate negotiations.
Infrastructure and Capacity Planning: Building the Case for Investment
Design Day Studies are indispensable for justifying infrastructure investments. One utility’s testimony before the Commission detailed a five-year capacity forecast which showed “Total System Capacity” rising significantly, driven by Design Day peak demand estimates. This study, projecting a coldest-day scenario, supported the utility’s request for pipeline expansions, securing approval by proving the system would otherwise fall short by Winter 2024-25, with a reserve margin dipping to -1.09%. The commission’s nod reflects the study’s credibility in linking capacity to reliability.
A northern utility’s filing further shows our expertise. MEA was commissioned by a utility to analyze historical weather data to define a peak demand event (0°F with 12 MPH winds), to justify a pipeline project to close a five-year supply gap. The Commission approved the plan, citing the study’s “reasonable Design Day demand planning criterion,” a win that unlocked millions in infrastructure funding.
System Reliability and Reserve Margins
Reliability is non-negotiable, and our tools ensure utilities meet extreme weather challenges. A utility recently reported a design day reserve margin, calculated using GasDay’s weather optimization across four stations. This margin, set against a -16°F January day with 22 MPH winds, assured regulators that the utility could handle peak loads, avoiding outages that threaten public safety. The commission upheld this plan, affirming MCast GasDay’s role in maintaining system integrity.
A southern utility echoed this: “the dekatherm per degree day factor (‘DTh/DD’) derived from the forecast software program ‘GASDAY’” informed its Design Day forecast. By multiplying prior usage by growth percentages, the utility ensured capacity for a design winter, with load duration curves exposing shortfalls regulators could address. This proactive approach highlights how MCast GasDay and Design Day Studies together fortify reliability arguments.
A Collaborative Approach
Regulatory proceedings can feel adversarial, but we believe
collaboration yields better outcomes. Our tools support this ethos by
delivering transparent, defensible data.
Beyond tools, MEA offers hands-on consulting. We assist with
testimony preparation, data interpretation, and responses to intervenor
challenges, ensuring filings withstand scrutiny. This support transforms raw
data into compelling narratives, bridging the gap between utilities and
regulators.
Why MEA Stands Out
Our edge lies in expertise: MCast GasDay and Design Day Studies are built on proprietary algorithms and decades of research from Marquette University’s GasDay Lab. Unlike generic models, our solutions adapt dynamically—e.g., GasDay’s “dynamic model adaption process” ensuring unmatched accuracy. Some of our customers have recovered an estimated $50 million during Winter Storm Uri while others have likely reduced disallowed expenses by up to 15% in rate cases and secured over $100 million in infrastructure approvals, based on typical outcomes from our work.
Conclusion: Your Regulatory Advantage
MCast GasDay and Design Day Studies empower utilities to master rate cases and planning proceedings with data regulators can’t ignore. From cost recovery to infrastructure justification, we deliver precision and partnership. Ready to strengthen your next filing? Reach our team at info@marquetteenergy.com to discuss tailored solutions. Let’s navigate the regulatory maze together, turning your data into decision making tools.
