April 13, 2020

We are continuing to track “What is the change in the load?” due to the various shelter-in-place orders going out.

Here is a typical response.

 

 

The top chart shows the non-COVID-19 expected load in blue, the actual load in red, the residual (residual = actual – expected) in gold.

The middle chart shows just the residuals (residual = actual – expected) in gold and the smoothed residuals in purple.

The bottom chart shows the percent residuals (100*residuals/actual) in gold and the smoothed percent residuals in purple.

This particular load was down a little in the second week of March, but was down about 12% by the 4th week of March and recently down near 30%. (OK, maybe this one has a little more load reduction than typical.)

What are we seeing across various customer bases?

Here are the percent residuals for several customer bases from several LDCs. Some are large, some are small, from many parts of the U.S. Some are system or core customers, some include the transports, some are just transports. The heavy black line is the daily mean.

 

 

This chart shows the histograms of the percent residuals on all the Tuesdays since March 3, 2020. This is another way to look at the average load reduction, but also the spread of the load reductions. The different customer bases are affected differently.

 

 

An offer to existing GasDay users: We can generate charts like the above in your operating areas. Those using our Web-based products just need to let us know. Those still on GasDay “Classic” (Excel interface) will need to send us their data.

Readers who are not users of our products are welcome to contact us to learn more about how Marquette Energy Analytics might be of help.